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VICTORY IS IN REACH - MARSEGLIA LEADS IN POLL, SANTARSIERO WITHIN MARGIN OF ERROR
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September 4, 2007
For Immediate Release
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Contact
Neil Samuels
Deputy Chair
215-348-2140
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The race for Bucks County Commissioner is a toss-up heading into the final two months of the campaign. As the table below shows, Democrat Diane Marseglia currently garners the most support at 34%, while Steve Santarsiero takes 28%. Charley Martin and Jim Cawley each win 30% – a
surprisingly weak showing for the Republican incumbents and a sign of the shifting political dynamics in Bucks County.
VOTE SUPPORT
Diane Marseglia 34%
Steve Santarsiero 28%
Charley Martin 30%
Jim Cawley 30%
Undecided 33%
No second choice 45%
Despite his long tenure as a commissioner, Martin is familiar to just 35% of voters – less than the 38% who are familiar with Marseglia.
Cawley is familiar to 29% - again, weak for an incumbent – while Santarsiero is familiar to 25%.
Because of these lower levels of familiarity, there is high number of undecided voters left to persuade, particularly when considering the voters who have yet choose their second candidate.
When asked about the race generically without specific candidates, 32% of voters pick the Democrat, and 32% pick the Republican.
METHODOLOGICAL NOTE: This memorandum summarizes results from a telephone poll among 400 randomly selected voters likely to participate in the November 2007 election for Bucks County Commissioner. Interviewing was conducted August 22-24, 2007. The interviews were conducted with a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interview) system. Special care was taken to ensure that the geographic and demographic divisions of the actual electorate are properly represented in the sample. The estimation error associated with a sample of 400 is 4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the results of this poll are within 4.9
points, plus or minus, of the results that would have been obtained if all probable voters had been interviewed
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